The involuntary oil trader

I used to work in Canary Wharf. My main role as an Oil Analyst was to ensure that my employer’s assets (mainly refineries and oil storage units) were hedged to protect from market and price volatility.

Little did I realise that years later when moving to Norway I would need to use my analyst skills on a weekly basis when buying fuel for my van.

Whereas most countries have a steady price for fuel at petrol stations, Norway seems to want to turn this into a trading game for all to play.

The petrol station prices for fuel can vary by over 30% per litre during the course of one day. It is quite mind-boggling.

Much like with market movements you can establish patterns for when the fuel will be cheap. But there is the constant game of when it will be cheapest during the course of the whole week.

Will it be Monday morning and Thursday morning like it used to be? But then suddenly Wednesday morning becomes super cheap for no reason whatsoever.

If you gamble incorrectly and need to emergency fill up then a full tank could cost you two extra dogs (my form of currency) for exactly the same amount of fuel.

Let me be quite clear the price fluctuations actually have nothing to do with the real time price of crude oil.

I can assure you that almost all major companies will have bought their stocks well in advance and hedged them with paper futures.

In petrol station terms this is the equivalent of taking jerry cans and filling them with fuel for a future date when you expect the future price of fuel to be higher than you are currently paying. Locking in a known cost in an uncertain World.

I have googled this strange Norwegian concept and whilst many come up with different theories there is no defined reason for these price fluctuations.

Surely it would make more sense to have a fixed weekly price and spread out your customers across the week.

Yet having said all of this I enjoy the game. And so far this week I have not seen diesel at a lower price than when I filled up my van.

**update** i saw it cheaper just now…. 🤣

Doggies: Poppy, Tiara, Punky and Tesla