Anomaly

In the UK we have a saying which goes something like “if it’s too good to be true it probably is”.

Gut feeling and logical analysis should always replace blind faith, especially in statistics and non-human Systems.

When I worked in Finance many moons ago, my job was partly to spot the incorrect numbers. Incorrect numbers and incorrect valuations can both acts as a warning sign, or as a very profitable loophole and opportunity.

But back to the current Anomaly. Whenever I fill up my truck with diesel I always reset the trip counter, so as to gauge a rough estimate of costs and efficiencies. I also really likes statistics and numbers.

Two days ago when I looked at my fuel gauge on the truck, it was telling me that I had just under half a tank left. Compared to the amount of kilometres I had driven that seemed very efficient but not far too outrageous.

The next day I drove my usual route and still it showed roughly the same level.

There were really only two different explanations. Either I had forgotten to reset the trip counter last time I filled up, or that my fuel meter was malfunctioning or stuck.

The latter is not that common, but when I was growing up my parents owned a 1970s VW combi bus which had this exact problem. My father therefore never trusted what was on the dashboard and would calculate how many kilometres we drove between required fuel stops, so that we never ran out of petrol.

Jumping in the truck this morning the numbers were now “too good to be true”. The Iranian-inspired diesel pricing gods were slightly on my side and it was 3 Nok cheaper per litre than yesterday.

I watched on in curious anticipation as the petrol pump did its job. I know roughly how big my fuel tank is and I also know my average fuel economy having had the same truck for over ten years.

As the litres continued to flow well past the half tank level I felt a certain analytical joy.

In the end I calculated that therr can’t have been more than four or five litres of diesel left in my tank which would have essentially meant that I would have run out of fuel on my way to my second Dog Adventure today, despite it still informing me I had half a tank.

Despite advances in technology, software and systems it is important to always use the greatest computer, your brain, and listen to the signs and warnings it might be giving you.

As for the truck, well, the fuel gauge now shows it as full once again. Maybe it will get stuck at the half fuel level, maybe it was a one-off glitch. Time will tell, but it is good to know that my mental backup system and analytical mind is still working.

Doggies: Lotta, Amazona, Noomi and Haraka